Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.203280 0.228435 0.255632 0.287249 0.323024 0.362284 0.408685
2025-11-23 0.160990 0.193506 0.231217 0.278278 0.335568 0.403220 0.489417
2025-11-30 0.136654 0.174440 0.221107 0.283201 0.364000 0.466038 0.605408
2025-12-07 0.111760 0.150583 0.201325 0.272888 0.371845 0.504771 0.698405
2025-12-14 0.094304 0.133530 0.187547 0.267952 0.385627 0.553126 0.812435
2025-12-21 0.080504 0.119305 0.175365 0.263091 0.398445 0.601851 0.935352
2025-12-28 0.072191 0.111670 0.171353 0.269281 0.428177 0.679702 1.115570
2026-01-04 0.063410 0.101998 0.162803 0.267018 0.444170 0.738464 1.275519
2026-01-11 0.056903 0.094961 0.157322 0.268711 0.466631 0.810961 1.471390
2026-01-18 0.051975 0.089807 0.154136 0.273651 0.495198 0.898113 1.708962
2026-01-25 0.045324 0.080785 0.143112 0.263070 0.494095 0.931462 1.851013
2026-02-01 0.039546 0.072552 0.132387 0.251423 0.489052 0.956300 1.980304
2026-02-08 0.035250 0.066626 0.125346 0.246240 0.496756 1.009222 2.182281
2026-02-15 0.031401 0.061055 0.118267 0.239985 0.501417 1.057007 2.383569
2026-02-22 0.029279 0.058587 0.116907 0.245199 0.531050 1.162810 2.738354
2026-03-01 0.026081 0.053542 0.109711 0.237033 0.530236 1.201570 2.943216
2026-03-08 0.023684 0.049856 0.104856 0.233267 0.538774 1.263243 3.218120
2026-03-15 0.021564 0.046495 0.100264 0.229410 0.546479 1.324308 3.504906
2026-03-22 0.020414 0.045105 0.099789 0.235016 0.577934 1.449186 3.990484
2026-03-29 0.018844 0.042579 0.096438 0.233235 0.590635 1.528585 4.367032
2026-04-05 0.017657 0.040790 0.094564 0.234830 0.612362 1.635816 4.849799
2026-04-12 0.016747 0.039548 0.093827 0.239209 0.642293 1.771054 5.449987
2026-04-19 0.015152 0.036458 0.088231 0.230092 0.633613 1.795777 5.707911